central banking
To understand the mid- to long-term outlook for the banking sector, we need to understand the key drivers at work in the industry today.
How have the markets responded to congressional testimony from recent Fed chairs? Have they shown a preference or distaste for any one in particular?
The predictive power of the yield curve is a widely accepted causal narrative. But the history shows that the causal correlation between long and short rates is actually quite weak.
Is there evidence of an ECB put in European credit markets?
There is reason to be cautious about the nascent yen rally.
“It is difficult not to marvel at the imagination which was implicit in this gargantuan insanity. If there must be madness something may be said for having it on a heroic scale.” -- John Kenneth Galbraith
The impact of Fed policy on the global financial system is yet another feature of the COVID-19 pandemic that caught investors off guard.
Recession is now a virtual inevitability.
“This is a time of testing -- a testing not only of our capacity collectively to reach coherent and intelligent policies, but to stick with them.” -- Paul Volcker
"Wall Street wisdom is that QE is immensely powerful and is stoking financial bubbles. Academics say, 'I take your $100 bills, I give you back 10 $10 bills. Who cares?'"